Feb 04 2010
This is the kind of stuff you find in bear markets
Big drop, a pause, a rally…then BAM! And everyone is offsides.
Things to note:
1. Unemployment report tomorrow morning.
2. Slope of 50 MA is now negative.
3. I ain’t touching this crap in either direction. Waaay too dangerous. I just want to graduate.
Meanwhile, the USD index continues to go higher. At this very minute, the USD index is at 80.23, quite a bit higher than the 79.92 in the chart below. EUR/USD is in freefall and it is quite comical. Something probably blew up in Europe.
Sitting on a pile of government bonds that pay crap interest feels so good, especially when the dollar is strengthening dramatically.
Now back to the S&P 500…there seems to be a megaphone pattern.
Once the megaphone breaks to the downside, it’s 90 points straight down the toilet.
I have some mixed feelings right now.
1. I really cannot get myself to short this. It’s just not worth my time. Suppose I double my trading account? So what? Big whoop-dee-doo. I’d rather just hurry up and graduate.
2. If this really was the end of this bear market rally, I feel vindicated in remaining a bear and telling people to stay away from stocks even though they were going up. But if my nightmare scenario plays out, meaning that we find the S&P 500 under 700 before the end of June, I’m not going to be a happy camper. In a sense though, it doesn’t matter what the market does, the job market sucks anyway. Nothing really new.
[...] megaphone on the S&P 500 last mentioned last week is still holding [...]