Jan 23 2010
Not funny
I don’t know if this is the end of this bear market rally, but the impulsiveness of the move the last few days suggests it is. If this was it, we could see this entire move come off in half the time, that is, we can see the S&P 500 back down under 700 by the end of June. Markets have a very bad habit of falling twice as fast as they rise.
Will it happen? I don’t know. That’s a pretty bold call and I am not willing to put my money where my mouth is, but if it happens, it wouldn’t shock me. This whole rally was built on lies. There is no economic recovery.
My calculation now is that if this scenario actually plays out, then I could be in big trouble. It’s one thing to sit on the sidelines and watch people fail to get jobs, but it’s completely different to be that guy who can’t find a job. I think I’ll be okay when I actually start looking for a job, but in the back of my mind I can imagine that if things go bad, they will go very bad, and it will not be cool.
[...] a bear and telling people to stay away from stocks even though they were going up. But if my nightmare scenario plays out, meaning that we find the S&P 500 under 700 before the end of June, I’m not [...]