Jan 21 2010
Motivation issues
It’s really starting to look like I can wrap up my Ph.D. by the end of 2010 instead of May 2011. I previously believed that the only way I’d be able to get out early is if my advisor ran out of money but it doesn’t look like that will happen. However, based on what I’ve done so far and what I still need to do, it is not inconceivable that I finish before the year is out. As confirmed by my advisor, these are the only things standing between me and my degree:
1. One more semester of being a TA to satisfy degree requirements.
2. One more tapeout. (Early May)
3. A whole lot of explaining to do in the form of a thesis and a defense.
I am a TA this semester for a professor who will be on my committee. It is best to do a good job and not piss him off.
This last tapeout is perhaps the lowest risk tapeout I will ever do. It is not a complex tapeout and the probability that things go bad is very low. However, unlike other tapeouts, I know if I screw this one up, that’s 6 months of work down the drain instantly. This time, my neck really is on the line. 3 months to tapeout, 3 months to fabricate, 3 months to test, and that only takes me to the end of October. I really can finish before the end of the year.
And as for the thesis and the defense, oh boy, I know I have a whole mess to explain. But after the May tapeout and a conference in May (if I get in), I have a solid 2-2.5 months to do nothing but work on my thesis. This time is when my blogging is going to pay off.
When the light is shining brightly at the end of the Ph.D. tunnel, all other pursuits seem secondary.
1. Yesterday I decided to quit my day trading even though it does not take up much of my time. Today I ACHed 99% of my trading account balance to my bank. The money is going to sit in my savings account and collect 1.35% instead of sitting in my brokerage account in case I decide to pull something stupid. I left 1% in my trading account so that I can still get access to real-time quotes and all the nifty charting.
2. Tribes 2? Not a chance. Waste of time.
3. Girls? LOL! Come on now. Don’t be silly.
I will still continue to blog because blogging keeps things in perspective.
Finishing my Ph.D. before the year is out means certain lifestyle absolutes.
1. I will have a regular bedtime. No exceptions. My problem is not that I do not have enough time, in fact I have plenty of time. If I only put in 40 solid hours per week between now and December, I think I can finish my Ph.D. My problem is that I need to find a way to put myself in a position where I can make best use of those 40 hours per week, and that means getting my sleep schedule straightened out. I’ve been sticking to a tight bedtime in the last week or so.
2. I will eat breakfast. It’s actually quite amazing what I can accomplish before lunchtime if I actually get my butt to school by 10 am with breakfast in my stomach. I have a lot of untapped potential that I can take advantage of if I can push the start of my workday to 9 am.
3. Gym, twice a week. It’s impossible to be efficient when your body feels like crap. My best semesters were the ones when I regularly went to the gym. Unless I’m really panicking over a tapeout deadline, I will go.
Now having said all this, I have one very serious motivation issue…I am just not very motivated.
My tapeout is in May. The conference I will present at if I get in is in May. My proposal will likely be in March; the document is done and all I need to do is make a presentation and get a committee together. These things are still kind of “far off” but at the same time I know that if I let a few weeks slip by without being productive, down the road in the not to distant future, it’s going to suck, and it’s going to suck really bad. Looking at my calendar, I think I can afford to waste this last week of January, and that’s about it. If I can’t get myself motivated in the next week or so, it’s okay, but beyond that, I’ll be a big trouble.
Meanwhile, today was a very interesting day in the market.
The 50 MA stopped the decline on the S&P 500 today.
I think this may be it, but I’ve been wrong so many times. However, that 1121 level is the 50% retracement from the 1576 peak to the 666 low and that’s an extremely important line in the sand. I say the 666 low gets blown before the end of the year, but I am not trading it, I have my Ph.D. to focus on.
Meanwhile the USD index tagged the 200 MA today after breaking out from the 78.31 local high.
Mark my words. Two years from now, EUR/USD will return to parity.
Bond yields seem to be on their way back down.
I am kind of kicking myself for not adding to the bond funds in my Roth IRA in the last few weeks because it would have been such and awesome buying opportunity. Despite what people say about the federal deficit, I say the TNX goes to 25 by the end of the year. The powers that be will find a way to crash the market and scare everyone back into bonds. They have to. Why? The nation’s debt needs to be rolled over at a low interest rate somehow. Why? To distract the people of the important issues facing this nation by waging another war of course! How else are they going to pay for it?