Jul
31
2007
Log scale
Linear scale
When looking at charts, always use log scale. AHM may have only fallen $9.43 today, but that was a -90.07% change from the day before.
I show these charts for two reasons:
1. A lesson in log vs. linear charts is always nice.
2. This chart is proof that subprime problems are NOT [...]
Jul
30
2007
Check this out. Jim Cramer actually tells the truth and says that housing is screwed hard.
I can’t believe my ears because this guy is one of the biggest bulls and one of the biggest scam artists out there. It makes me wonder if this marks a bottom in the real estate market even though [...]
Jul
29
2007
According to The Stock Trader’s Almanac 2007…
1. July usually closes well but can end badly in a bear market.
2. Since 1987, August has been the worst month for the S&P 500 and the second worst month for the Dow and the Nasdaq. From 1901-1951, August was the best month because back [...]
Jul
28
2007
This post is primarily for my own benefit, but if you are bored enough to read the whole thing, you will understand my logic. I feel I have done a disservice to my readers by ranting all the time and not completely fleshing out all my thoughts. So here you go, everything explained.
My goals in [...]
Jul
28
2007
I’m only annotating two charts today because it takes way too much time to annotate the charts of 4 indices, 1 ETF, and 1 mutual fund.
Prior support at 1490 became resistance today when the S&P 500 printed an intraday high of 1488.53. The S&P 500 closed at 1458.95 which is below the February high [...]
Jul
27
2007
Q2 GDP growth = 3.4% and the market doesn’t like it.
In particular, much of the growth was due to a huge buildup in inventory, but consumers weren’t buying.
Remember, this number is likely to be revised downward but I am still surprised the market does not like this 3.4% number.
Jul
26
2007
As I will show in a series of charts, the stock market is melting down and the technicals do not look good. The only thing that can prevent a further deterioration of the technicals is a strong advance Q2 GDP report tomorrow morning. Analysts believe Q2 GDP will come in at 3.2%, a [...]
Jul
24
2007
The Russell 2000 crashed through support at 820 and closed at 811.86, slightly above support at 810. The 200MA is slightly below that at 804.21.
It won’t be easy for the Russell 2000 to break the 200MA but don’t count that out. If this is the end of the bull market, the Russell [...]
Jul
24
2007
Netflix cut the price of two plans by $1 and reported its first ever quarterly drop in subscribers from 6.8 million to 6.74 million. Net income exceeded expectations by a good amount but the stock still got hammered.
A lot of technical damage has been done. If you look at a 3-year chart, NFLX [...]
Jul
21
2007
The 10-Year US Treasury Yield fell below 5% on Friday and I was quite surprised that it did. I expected the 10 year yield to bounce between 5% and 5.25% for a little longer and I wasn’t sure which way it would break.
Back in May and early June, the 10 year yield took off like [...]